Tarik Skubal stands alone atop MLB.com’s 2026-27 free-agent starter board

MLB.com’s latest free-agent starting pitcher rankings begin with a rare kind of certainty: Tarik Skubal is the unanimous No. 1, and the debate starts only after his name.

That is the biggest takeaway from the 2026-27 edition of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings, which the site says considered only pitchers currently on the open market. A year ago, the top spot itself was unsettled. This time, the uncertainty has shifted down the board, where six pitchers drew at least one second- or third-place vote from an eight-member panel. In other words, the field behind Skubal is crowded enough that the ranking order depends heavily on how voters weighed age, health, recent performance and remaining upside.

Skubal’s position is not just a reward for reputation. MLB.com notes that his 2026 season still left him with an ERA well under 3.00 and a 2.51 FIP that closely matched the numbers he posted over the previous two years. Even after an elbow injury cost him about six weeks and he changed leagues at the trade deadline, the evaluation stays anchored to sustained production rather than any one stretch of missed time. The article also points to the surgery he underwent earlier in the year, but says his strong return should give interested teams confidence going forward.

That context matters because it shows why MLB.com drew a line between Skubal and everyone else. The piece does not frame the left-hander as merely the safest arm available. It frames him as the one pitcher whose place is already settled before the market opens. That makes the rest of the list more interesting, because the rankings are no longer about identifying the top free agent starter. They are about sorting a group of good but imperfect options into a pecking order.

Michael King lands second after a season that pushed his stock upward. Freddy Peralta follows at No. 3, with Sonny Gray at No. 4. Kaima Taira, who has entered the posting process and is now available to all 30 MLB teams, checks in fifth. Trevor Rogers, Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga and Foster Griffin round out the top 10.

The names themselves tell the story. Some are veterans with long major league histories, some are coming off bounce-back seasons, and one is entering MLB from Japan with high-end tools but a thinner record as a starter. That mix is what makes the middle of the board unstable. MLB.com’s explanations for each pitcher repeatedly balance production against warning signs: King’s innings total against under-the-surface concerns, Peralta’s split-season results against his track record, Gray’s strong year against age, Taira’s stuff against his role uncertainty, and Rogers’ late-season surge against his uneven path over several years.

Even the lower half of the top 10 reflects that tension. Holmes spent his career as a reliever before transitioning to the rotation, and Gausman’s profile still features elite strikeout and walk numbers despite a rougher end to 2026. Imanaga keeps missing bats but also gives up too many homers. Griffin’s rise is tied to a new, expanded pitch mix. None of those cases read like a clean consensus pick; each one asks voters to decide which risk matters least.

That is what separates this ranking from last year’s version. The first spot is closed. The rest of the board is still open to argument, which is why MLB.com’s panel split on so many of the same pitchers. The exercise is less a forecast of the next free-agent signing market than a snapshot of how varied the class looks before winter reshapes it.

For now, though, one thing is fixed: if a team wants the headliner of the class, it starts with Skubal, and the argument begins everywhere else.